Oct 23, 2008

Billings economy... new opportunities

November 14, 2007

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By: Tom Howard, Billings Gazette

Billings economy provides worker new opportunities

Local and national experts agreed Tuesday that the Billings area's 1.5 percent unemployment rate provides significant challenges for employers trying to fill jobs.

But opportunities abound for people hoping to improve their lives by boosting their job skills.

Nancy Boyer, a city councilwoman who runs her own career-counseling business, said she is still busy despite the low unemployment rate, because many of her clients are looking for better jobs.

The low unemployment rate is one of the consequences of 15 years of prosperity, an era in which Billings has experienced steady income growth and the creation of thousands of new jobs.

The number of people employed in Yellowstone County has increased from about 61,000 in the 1980s to more than 100,000 today, said Larry Swanson, associate director of regional economics for the O'Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West at the University of Montana.

Yellowstone County's inflation-adjusted per capita personal income - job earnings, dividends, interest, rent and transfer payments such as Social Security - has grown significantly, from just more than $25,000 in 1995 to $33,245 in 2005, Swanson said.

"This can be considered fairly aggressive growth in income over the past 10 years," he said.

Economists had predicted a steady decline in the unemployment rate a few years ago as Montana made the transition from a resource-based economy to an economy that emphasizes trade and services.

"We could see a tight labor market happening, but we didn't think an unemployment rate of less than 2 percent would happen until 2011 or 2012," Swanson told about 300 people at a forum hosted by Celebrate Billings.

With unemployment hovering at nearly 1.5 percent in Billings, some jobs will go unfilled, barring a significant economic downturn, Swanson said.

Although most people are employed, many workers continue to be "underemployed," meaning that they're in the market for a better-paying job. By making targeted and systematic investments in work force training and education, many people will be able to improve their lives as their job skills increase, Swanson said.

Economists warn that a low unemployment rate can stoke inflation as employers are forced to raise wages to secure and retain employees. Swanson said inflationary pressure remains subdued, but the low unemployment rate creates a "huge opportunity" for people who want to improve their job skills and education.

Swanson also warned that economic growth could slow down within a few years as the state's population ages. By 2025, Montana will become one of the oldest states in the nation, with more than one-fourth of its residents 65 and older, he said.

Stuart Rosenfeld, president of Regional Technology Strategies Inc. of Chapel Hill, N.C., said comprehensive community colleges can play a key role in helping communities train qualified workers.

A Billings work force development program must be aligned with the community's most important employment sectors, such as health care, business and finance, energy, education and information technology. But Yellowstone County also has more than 11,000 self-employed people, and they shouldn't be overlooked, Rosenfeld said.

Encouraging people to start their own businesses can help them replace jobs lost to globalization. About half of all multimedia artists are self-employed, and nearly one-third of commercial and industrial designers are self-employed, Rosenfeld said.

He also presented a list of recommendations for a successful work force development program. They include:

• Keep it flexible, with simple entry and exit strategies.

• Link to "clusters" of important local employment sectors.

• Recognize and support entrepreneurs and other self-employed people.

• Create real partnerships with local industry.

During a panel discussion, Keith Rupert of CTA Architects Engineers said the company never had to do much recruiting until about four years ago. In some cases, the company has used creative ways to fill jobs. When hiring a fire protection engineer, a highly specialized field, CTA conducted an interview by videoconferencing with a candidate from New Zealand, he said.

CTA has had limited success by using "headhunters," people who recruit professionals. Online employment services, such as Monster have proven to be more effective, Rupert said.